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Karachi: PTC will announce its 9MFY12 results tomorrow.
According to AKD Securities expects the company’s consolidated earnings for 9MFY12 to stand at PkR7.1bn (EPS: PkR1.39), which would denote a fall of 10%YoY. The fall in earnings comes despite 7%YoY growth in revenues and flat GMs as higher S and A expenses (+9%YoY) coupled with lower `other income’ (-54%YoY) are likely to drag profitability in 9MFY12. On a sequential basis, AKD Securities expects earnings to grow by 3%QoQ to PkR2.5bn (EPS: PkR0.48) with earnings growth lifted by higher revenues (+5%QoQ) of 100% owned subsidiary `Ufone’. On a standalone basis, AKD Securities forecasts PTC’s NPAT for 9MFY12 to stand at PkR4.3bn (EPS: PkR084), which would translate into NPAT de-growth of 14%YoY, where the earnings fall is largely due to fall in `other income’ (-42%YoY). Sequentially as well, AKD Securities expects earnings to fall by 1%QoQ to PkR1.4bn (EPS: PkR0.28). AKD Securities expects PTC to announce an interim cash dividend of PkR1 .5/share alongside the result. At current levels AKD Securities recommends `Overweight’ on PTC, which offers an attractive upside of 26% to AKD Securities’ target price of PkR17.9/share.
UBL: 1QCY12 Result Preview
The BoD of United Bank Ltd (UBL) is scheduled to consider the bank’s 1QCY12 result on Apr 26’12. On a consolidated basis, AKD Securities expects UBL to post NPAT of PkR4,044mn (EPS: PkR3.30) in 1QCY12 vs. NPAT of PkR3,401mn (EPS: PkR2.78) in 1QCY11, translating into growth of 19%YoY. Key highlights of 10CY12 results are expected to be 1) marginal 2%YoY Nil growth, 2) a 31%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) 13%YoY growth in non-interest income led by dividend income and capital gains and 4) relatively contained 9%YoY increase in non-interest expenses. Sequentially, 1QCY12 profits should be lower by 6%QoQ on trimmer NII and higher loan provisions. Having gained a robust 55%CYTD, UBL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.1x and PER of 6.3x where AKD Securities’ revised target price of PkR82.50/share implies a Neutral stance. That said, AKD Securities will look to revisit AKD Securities’ investment case post announcement of 1QCY12 results.
AKBL: 1QCY12 Result Preview
Askari Bank Ltd’s (AKBL) 1QCY12 result will be announced tomorrow. On an unconsolidated basis, AKD Securities expects AKBL to post NPAT of PkR351 million (fully-diluted EPS: PkR043) in 1QCY12 vs. NPAT of PkR538mn (fully- diluted EPS: PkR0.66) in 1QCY11, translating into a hefty decline of 35%YoY. Key highlights of 1QCY12 results are expected to be 1) steep 25%YoY decline in NII (high base), 2) marginal 2%YoY increase in total provisions, 3) strong 71%YoY growth in non-interest income primarily driven by fx income and 4) contained 2%YoY increase in non-interest expenses as operational consolidation continues. AKBL (trailing P/B: 0.69x, PER: 7.2x) has now gained 66%CYTD. While AKBL still appears relatively inexpensive based on the market cap/deposits ratio (4.2% for AKBL vs. 13.3% average for the sector), the ongoing run-up in share price could be attributable to speculation regarding a change in sponsor (Fauji Foundation has expressed interest in buying out Army Welfare Trust’s stake in the bank). This could potentially lead to a public tender offer for 40% of the remaining float at a price not lower than the acquisition price (P/B multiple of 1x yields an acquisition price of PkR22/share)
PPL: 9MFY12 Result Preview
Pakistan Petroleum Limited is scheduled to announce its 9MFY12 result tomorrow where AKD Securities expects NPAT of PkR31.67bn against NPAT of PkR24.35bn in the corresponding period last year. The result translates into an EPS of PkR24.09 in 9MFY12 versus EPS of PkR18.52 in 9MFY11, a growth of 30%YoY. AKD Securities expects topline-led earnings growth underpinned by higher development returns and improving JV asset monetizations (particularly oil production for Nashpa) with revenues expected to log in at PkR70.7bn, up 22%YoY. Sequentially, AKD Securities expects earnings of PkR8.79/share, up 13%QoQ led by higher realized prices (benchmark crude oil prices up by 9%) and improving oil volumes led by monetization from Nashpa (average production flow of over 11kbpd versus 6kbpd in 2QFY12). While PPL has underperformed the broader market by 8% CYTD, over the last two weeks the stock has outperformed by 4.2% with a 5.1% absolute gain on conflicting news flow of either a delay in the SPO or a more reflective floor price for the upcoming SPO.