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Morning Briefing for December 27, 2013 – Standard Capital

Karachi, December 27, 2013 (PPI-OT): Chemical sector – Standard Capital’s coverage EPCL, GGL and ICI

Chemical sector is highly responsive to international commodity prices and local gas supply to plants. In recent times there was less gas supply and hence production decline was witnessed in few companies.

Companies situated in southern zone, however, don’t face such an eventuality. From commodity market sources, Standard Capital hears price increase in various textile bound chemicals wherein Standard Capital sees increase in quarter wise EPS in respective companies such as EPCL, ICI, SITC (caustic soda liquid).

The GSP+ to the textile sector is also an area of opportunity to textile processing chemicals which is being produced by ARPL (former CPL). Moreover, H2O2 producer SPL is also in limelight. The biggest threat, however, is the ongoing gas supply shortage which is forcing country wide units to either lessen production or close down.

In gases segment, GGL seems to outwit Linde. The company’s Lahore based plant is stated to have full production given increase in gas load. Its Karachi based new plant has started production from this week of December and company is poised to be one of the leaders of hospital gases etc. It is also a good option for Shariah-compliant mutual funds.

Standard Capital believes EPCL to attain full production near to 150K tons per annum of PVC with roaring sales in Punjab. Secondly, any shortage like situation in caustic soda means increase in product prices which could be beneficial for EPCL revenue increase in CY13.

Company                            EPS Latest    P/E     Exp P/E      PBV         ROE         ROA      Dividend         Avg 12M
                                                                                                         Yield           Volume 
Archroma Pakistan                    50.49(9M)    7.8      3.8        1.97       25.37       14.38        7.43            8,804 
Pakistan Gum and Chemicals           18.04(9M)    5.3      6.7        1.48       51.35       20.86        4.98            2,118 
Engro Polymer and Chemical            0.85(9M)  194.6     11.4        1.32        5.38        1.93         N/A        1,826,966 
Linde Pakistan                        4.71(9M)   16.5     29.0        2.78       16.62        9.48        3.85            9,820 
Lotte Chemical Pakistan               0.07(9M)  -60.7     66.2          0.9      31.93       17.48         N/A        4,113,470

                                                          FY14                                              
Company                             EPS Latest   P/E     Exp P/E       PBV        ROE         ROA       Dividend         Avg 12M
                                                                                                         Yield            Volume
Descon Chemicals                     -0.04(3M)  -13.5      2.8        1.52       60.61       20.75        N/A           218,000 
Sitara Chemical                      13.35(3M)    5.9      3.9        0.69       11.73        5.35        4.23           19,867 
Nimir Ind.Chemicals                   0.18(3M)    3.3      7.4        0.66       20.35       11.78        N/A           587,889 
Wah-Nobel Chemicals                   1.59(3M)    5.5      7.6        0.9        17.14       11.88        N/A             9,927 
Biafo Industries                      2.53(3M)    6.6      9.4        3.08       31.92       22.55       13.68            1,901 
Ghani Gases                           0.23(3M)   13.2      9.5        2.22       10.68        4.59        1.8           253,279 
Dynea Pakistan                        0.96(3M)    4.7     10.2        1.06       18.69       11.06        6.42           30,405 
Sitara Peroxide                       0.33(3M)    N/A    193.4        0.93       18.33        5.78        N/A           307,165 
I.C.I Pakistan                        3.32(3M)   33.8     18.9        2.15       16.89        8.78        2.19           85,810 
Descon Oxychem                       -0.51(3M)  -11.2      N/m        1.13       24.42        5.51        N/A           509,556 

Source: www.scstrade.com

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