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Morning Call about 1QFY13 Result Previews – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi, October 23, 2012 (PPI-OT): LUCK and PSO

LUCK; Profitability is likely to jump by 38% YoY in 1QFY13

Arif Habib Limited previews 1QFY13 financial results for Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK), scheduled to announce on October 25, 2012.

According to Arif Habib Limited expects the company to post net earnings of PKR 2.1 billion (EPS: PKR 6.44) in 1QFY13, a 38% YoY rise, when compared with PKR 1.5 billion (EPS: PKR 4.66) in 1QFY12. This healthy profitability is expected on account of 15% YoY jump in average retention price, which coupled with a modest 1% YoY improvement in dispatches in likely to take net revenues up by 16% YoY. This favorable pricing coupled with lowering coal prices is likely to widen gross margins to highest ever mark of 42% (40% in 1QFY12). In addition, commencement of 20MW of power supply to HESCO, a 15% expected drop in distribution cost due to lower exports and a 52% YoY decline in finance cost will further boost the bottom line of the company.

Financial Highlights      
PKR million 1QFY13 1QFY12 YoY
Net Sales

8,667

7,496

16%

Gross Profit

3,644

2,915

25%

Distribution Costs

786

922

-15%

Operating Profit

2,746

1,784

54%

Finance Cost

39

81

-52%

Profit after tax

2,084

1,506

38%

Earnings per share (PKR)

6.44

4.66

Sources: Company financials and AHL Research

PSO; 1QFY13 Earnings are likely to clock in at PKR 14.34/share

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY13 earnings on October 25, 2012. Arif Habib Limited foresees a 19% YoY growth in profitability to PKR 3 billion (EPS: PKR 14.34) in 1QFY13 compared to PKR 2.5 billion (EPS: PKR 12.8) in the same quarter last year. This healthy jump in profitability is likely to come from a 29% YoY improvement in gross profit to PKR 9.9 billion in 1QFY13. Strong YoY volumetric growth of 15% and 11% in MS and HSD respectively coupled with 21% and 9% jump in their respective margins is likely to support the gross profit. In addition a 9% YoY increase in FO prices and inventory gains due to favorable POL price movement will further boost gross profit. Rising level of payables is likely to swell finance cost by 62% YoY to PKR 3.5 billion. Some relief however is likely to come from a 41% YoY lower other operating expenses due to relatively stable exchange rate.

Financial Highlights      
PKR million 1QFY13 1QFY12 YoY
Net sales

280,873

238,736

18%

Gross profit

9,919

7,678

29%

Other operating income

549

487

13%

Operating expenses

3,494

3,566

-2%

Finance cost

3,027

1,873

62%

Taxation

(1,265)

1,254

n.m

Profit after taxation

2,951

2,487

19%

EPS (PKR) Adjusted

14.34

12.80

Sources: Company financials and AHL Research

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