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The Bell about Electricity – Elixir Securities Limited

Karachi, October 22, 2012 (PPI-OT): NPL: 1QFY13 EPS expected at PKR 1.56

According to Elixir Securities Limited,

NPL Outstanding shares: 354 million
PKR million 1QFY12A 1QFY13E YoY
Turnover

6,264

4,748

-24%

Cost of sales

5,071

3,605

-29%

Gross Profit

1,193

1,143

-4%

Administrative expenses

20

20

2%

Other Operating Income

6

6

8%

Profit from operations

1179

1129

-4%

Finance Cost

746

605

-19%

Profit before taxation

433

524

21%

Taxation

1

2

21%

Profit for the period

431

523

21%

EPS (PKR)

1.22

1.48

21%

Source: Company Accounts; Elixir Research      

Net spread to income to rise

NTDCL released payments of nine IPPs amounting to PKR 24 billion with monthly installments of PKR 8 billion each. NPL would likely have received PKR 4-5 billion share from the total payments which is similar to NCPL’s share. Overdue receivables of NPL are thus estimated to have dropped to PKR 6.3 billion, from PKR 8.6 billion. 70% of overdue receivables would likely be funded through ST borrowing, which would keep spread income limited at PKR 147 million (PKR 0.42/share).

Operational savings to drop with low generation

Elixir Securities Limited expects generation for 1QFY13 to clock in at 259Gwh, down 29% YoY, at a load factor of 60%. Fuel savings for the quarter are expected at PKR 0.17/share, down 26% YoY, at a fuel savings rate of 3.8gms/kwh, on account of drop in generation. O and M savings for the quarter are expected at PKR 0.42/share, down 25% YoY, at 50% of the estimated O and M revenue. O and M savings during last year remained low at 44% of the estimated O and M revenue.

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