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Stock Market Faces Volatility Amid Weaker Corporate Earnings

Karachi: The stock market experienced volatility over the past week, with a notable decline in the benchmark index and reduced market participation, as corporations reported weaker-than-expected earnings. The benchmark index dropped by 502 points, marking a 0.3% decrease week-on-week, closing at 163,304 points. Market participation also saw a decline, with average daily trading volume decreasing by 17% to 1.8 billion shares, compared to 2.2 billion shares the previous week.

In macroeconomic developments, the current account for September 2025 recorded a surplus of $110 million. Information technology exports for the same month reached $366 million, a 25% increase from the previous year and the highest monthly figure on record. Power generation in September 2025 was reported at 12,592 gigawatt-hours, representing a 1% year-on-year increase, while the cost of generation dropped by 24% year-on-year.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan increased by $14 million week-on-week, bringing the total to $14.5 billion as of October 17. On the currency front, the Pakistani Rupee appreciated by 0.03% against the US dollar, closing the week at 281.0 PkR/US$.

Looking ahead, analysts at AKD Securities Limited anticipate continued momentum in the KSE-100 index. This optimism is attributed to a successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal impact from recent floods, and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid decreasing fixed income yields. Investor sentiment is expected to improve further with potential foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, bolstered by enhanced relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

The outlook is further supported by limited alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, with the KSE-100 trading at a multiple of 7.4x and offering a dividend yield of 6.6%. Top stock picks highlighted by analysts include MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.

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