Urea Sales Expected to Decline for Seventh Consecutive Month.

Karachi: Urea sales in October 2024 are projected to experience a significant decline for the seventh month in a row, with expectations of reaching 360,000 tons, marking a 22% year-on-year decrease due to reduced demand. In stark contrast, the cumulative urea off-take for the first ten months of the calendar year 2024 is anticipated to be around 4.9 million tons, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) sales are expected to show a 67% year-on-year increase in October 2024.

According to JS Global, on a company-specific level, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is forecasted to record urea sales of 144,000 tons in October 2024, representing a 12% decrease from the previous year. Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) is projected to report a urea sales volume of 99,000 tons, showing a substantial 42% year-on-year reduction, although it is expected to improve by 76% compared to the previous month due to a low base effect. Similarly, FFBL is anticipated to experience a 2.1-times year-on-year increase in urea volumes.

The market continues to face uncertainty regarding urea pricing, with FFC and FFBL leading the urea market. They are expected to hold a combined market share of 51% for the first ten months of 2024, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous year. In contrast, EFERT is at a relative disadvantage, with its market share declining by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 30% during the same period.

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