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Morning Call about External Account Outlook – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi, August 23, 2012 (PPI-OT): The legacy of ‘ups and downs’ continues

Trade Deficit swells up to USD 1.6 billion in first month of FY13
The 1MFY13 trade deficit of Pakistan clocked in at USD 1.6 billion recording a rise of 4% against USD1.5 billion in the same period last year.

According to Arif Habib Limited, this marked a sluggish start to the new fiscal year with Pakistan’s exports and imports both sliding further into the red zone. In July-12 Pakistan’s imports remained higher than exports amounting to USD 3.7 billion while exports stood at USD 2.1 billion.

Exports dwindle at USD 2.1 billion, down by 4.6%
Exports contracted by 4.6% YoY in July mounting to USD 2.1 billion which is USD 0.1 billion less than exports made in July last year. Some of the main commodities exported during July-12 were Cotton cloth (PKR 19 billion), Knitwear (PKR 18.6 billion) and Jewellery (PKR 18.4 billion). However, the commerce ministry expects this figure to improve with the implementation of next three years trade policy framework (2012-2015) which promises measures to boost exports.

Imports show decline of 0.7%, still remain higher than exports
Imports reached USD 3.7 billion, a decline of 0.73% which was USD 0.27 billion less than the import bill in July FY12. Some of the main commodities imported during July-12 were Petroleum products (PKR 93.3 billion), Petroleum crude (PKR 34.3 billion) and Palm oil (PKR 19.9 billion).

Remittances continue the stellar growth
Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis continue to grow and projected a rise of 9.89% to USD 1.2 billion in July FY13 compared with USD 1.1 billion received in the same month of FY13. Remittances received from some of the countries were; Saudi Arabia USD 3.5 billion, UAE USD 2.4 billion, USA USD 2.2 billion, UK USD 1.5 billion, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries USD 1.4 billion and European Union countries USD 0.3 billion. This continuous growth in worker remittances attributed to the Pakistan Remittance Initiative taken to facilitate both overseas Pakistanis and their families back home.

Reserves clinched up to USD 15.3 billion by the end of second week of August
Pakistan’s total liquid foreign reserves stood at USD15.3 billion on August 10, 2012, as against total reserves of USD 15.5 billion a week before. Out of these USD 15.3 billion, foreign reserves held by SBP were USD 10.8 billion and net foreign reserves held by banks (other than SBP) USD 4.5 billion.

Foreign direct investment fall, investment in portfolio up
FDI slipped down by 50.3% to USD 0.42 billion during July 2012 from USD 0.85 billion in the same period last year. However, foreign inflows in the equity market (portfolio investment) saw an inflow of USD 0.28 billion as against the outflow of USD 0.29 billion during the corresponding month of FY12. This decline in FDI was on account of international economic sluggishness, local energy shortages, political instability and poor law and order situation in Pakistan.

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