Maple Leaf Cement Maintains Buy Rating Amid Revised Earnings Outlook

Lahore: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has reaffirmed its Buy rating, despite revising its earnings projections for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 downward by 14-15%. The adjustment reflects softer cement prices in the North region, leading to updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates of Rs11.08 and Rs12.94, respectively.

While the core value of MLCF has decreased, the company has maintained its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) based target price (TP) of Rs140. This stability is attributed to an increase in portfolio value, now at Rs32 per share, up from Rs26 previously. The TP has been rolled forward to December 2026.

MLCF management is optimistic about a restructuring at Agritech Ltd (AGL), anticipating a positive turnaround. The collaboration with Fauji Fertilizer’s dealership network and expertise is expected to bolster AGL’s future prospects, as detailed in a recent analyst briefing.

The company reported that significant progress has been made on the NovaCare Hospitals project, with 70-80% of civil work completed. The project is on track for completion by December 2026, with a break-even projected within 24 to 30 months thereafter.

In its core cement operations, MLCF anticipates a dispatch growth of 10-15% in FY26. Margins are expected to stabilize around 34-35% going forward. The company also foresees a stable, tax-exempt dividend from Maple Leaf Power Limited (MLPL) amounting to Rs1.2-1.5 billion in FY26.