Pakistan Faces Potential Policy Rate Change as Inflation Trends Normalize

Karachi: Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 is anticipated to register at 2.8%, according to a recent analysis by JS Global. This figure marks a transition towards more normalized price trends as the base effect diminishes.

Food inflation is projected to increase by 0.3% year-over-year, driven largely by rising costs of essential food items such as chicken and key vegetables. This uptick in food prices is seen as a contributing factor to the overall inflation rate.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is set to convene for its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on July 30, 2025. Ahead of this meeting, JS Global conducted a survey among high-net-worth clients and financial institutions to gauge expectations regarding potential changes in the policy rate.

The survey results indicate a divided outlook: 65% of participants anticipate a reduction in the policy rate, while the remaining respondents expect the SBP to maintain the current rate. This divergence in expectations comes amid the backdrop of evolving inflation dynamics.

The forthcoming MPC meeting will be closely monitored as stakeholders await the SBP’s decision, which could have significant implications for the country’s economic trajectory.

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