Pakistan’s Central Bank Poised to Maintain Steady Course Amid Inflation Concerns

Karachi: The State Bank of Pakistan is expected to maintain a cautious stance in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, as outlined in a report from AKD Securities Limited. The decision comes amid ongoing concerns regarding inflation, potential impacts from United States trade tariffs, and significant growth in key economic indicators.

The report projects a gradual easing of inflation, which peaked at 5.6% year-on-year in September 2025. However, it suggests that inflation will remain within the lower end of the central bank’s medium-term target range of 5-7% for the fiscal year 2026.

Moreover, the report anticipates a robust currency, attributing its strength to factors such as strong workers’ remittance inflows, reduced interest payments, sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and renewed access to international financial markets.

In light of these economic conditions, AKD Securities has revised its forecast, now expecting a 150 basis point cut in the policy rate by June 2026, deferring from the earlier projection of December 2025.