Pakistan’s E and P Sector Braces for Decline in Earnings Amid Falling Production

Karachi: Pakistan’s exploration and production (E and P) sector is projected to face a significant decline in earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, according to a report by AKD Securities Limited. The anticipated downturn, estimated at a 17% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter decrease, is attributed to a combination of factors including reduced hydrocarbon production, decreased oil and wellhead gas prices, and the imposition of royalty charges on Mari Energies.

The report highlights a notable decline in the sector’s oil and gas production, with figures dropping by 15% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, bringing the output to 57,500 barrels per day and 2.7 billion cubic feet per day during the quarter. Despite these challenges, the report suggests that listed companies in the sector are likely to sustain their dividend payouts due to improving liquidity and enhancements in cash receipts.

AKD Securities maintains a positive outlook on key players in the sector, reiterating a ‘BUY’ recommendation for Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL). The target prices for December 2025 are set at PKR 371, PKR 285, and PKR 800 per share, respectively.

The findings underscore the challenges faced by Pakistan’s E and P sector amid fluctuating market conditions, yet signal potential resilience through strategic financial management.

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