Pakistan’s Urea Sales Decline, Inventory Increases in October 2025

Karachi: Pakistan’s urea sales in October 2025 are anticipated to reach 351,000 tons, marking a 2% decrease year-over-year and an 18% drop month-over-month. This decline is attributed to a pre-buying trend observed in previous months. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) increased its discount on urea bags to approximately Rs320 towards the end of October, while Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) maintained an average discount of Rs70 per bag.

The total urea offtake for the first ten months of 2025 is projected to be 4.55 million tons, an 8% decrease compared to 4.93 million tons during the same period in 2024. This reduction is mainly due to weak farm economics.

The closing inventory of urea is expected to be 1.42 million tons in October 2025, an increase from 1.15 million tons in September 2025. EFERT holds the highest inventory at 609,000 tons, followed by FFC with 401,000 tons and FATIMA with 333,000 tons.

EFERT is projected to record a 22% year-over-year and a 17% month-over-month increase in urea sales, reaching 122,000 tons in October 2025. Meanwhile, FFC is expected to report urea sales of 166,000 tons, a 7% year-over-year decline. The FATIMA group is anticipated to see a 27% year-over-year decrease to 43,000 tons in October 2025.

Total sales of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in October 2025 are forecasted at 140,000 tons, down 55% year-over-year but up 44% month-over-month due to seasonal factors. For the first ten months of 2025, total DAP offtake is estimated at 936,000 tons, a 25% year-over-year decrease.

FFC and EFERT are likely to report DAP sales of 109,000 tons and 19,000 tons, respectively, with other companies contributing an additional 12,000 tons in October 2025. The closing inventory of DAP is expected to be around 408,000 tons in October 2025, compared to 392,000 tons in September 2025 and 307,000 tons in October 2024.

Looking ahead, urea inventory levels are expected to remain elevated due to weak agronomic conditions, though there are signs of improvement supported by rising farm income. The inventory is anticipated to close December 2025 in the range of 1.2 to 1.4 million tons.