Islamabad Stock Exchange Closing Rate Summary of Close-End Mutual Funds dated 29-11-2012

Islamabad, November 29, 2012 (PPI-OT):

Company Name Symbol Code Opening Closing Volume Change
CLOSE-END MUTUAL FUNDS
Asian Stock Fund ASFL

6.60

6.60

0

0.00

JS Growth Fund JSGF

8.60

8.58

0

-0.02

PICIC Energy Fund PEF

9.06

9.00

0

-0.06

PICIC Growth Fund PGF

13.70

13.70

0

0.00

PICIC Inv. Fund  XD PIF

6.46

6.56

0

0.10

Prudential Stock Fund. PUDF

1.40

1.40

0

0.00

Safeway Mutual Fund SFWF

11.00

11.00

0

0.00

Tri-Star Mutual Fund TSMF

1.71

1.71

0

0.00

For more information, contact:
Islamabad Stock Exchange
ISE Towers
55-B, Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tel: +92(51)111-473-473
Fax: +92(51)111-473-329
Email: info@ise.com.pk

Islamabad Stock Exchange Closing Rate Summary of Open-End Mutual Funds dated 29-11-2012

Islamabad, November 29, 2012 (PPI-OT):

Company Name Symbol Code Opening Closing Volume Change
ABL AMC Capital Prot. Fund AMCCPF
Offer Price

10.03

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

10.03

0

0.00

Al-Meezan Mutual Fund AMMF
Offer Price

12.72

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

12.39

0

0.00

Askari Asset Allocation Fund AAAF
Offer Price

45.87

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

44.72

0

0.00

Askari Equity Fund AEF
Offer Price

110.75

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

108.54

0

0.00

Askari Islamic Asset Alloc. AIAAF
Offer Price

115.41

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

115.41

0

0.00

Askari Islamic Income Fund AIIF
Offer Price

101.78

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

100.77

0

0.00

Askari Sovereign Cash Fund ASCF
Offer Price

100.75

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

100.75

0

0.00

Askari Sovereign Yield Enhancer ASYE
Offer Price

102.61

0

0.00

Repurchase Price

102.61

0

0.00

Crosby Dragon Fund CDF
Offer Price

84.22

0

0.00

Redemption Price

82.56

0

0.00

Crosby Phoenix Fund CPF
Offer Price

102.30

0

0.00

Redemption Price

102.30

0

0.00

Metro Bank-Pakistan  Sover. Fund MSFP
Offer Price

50.79

0

0.00

Redemption Price

50.74

0

0.00

Meezan Cash Fund MCF
Offer Price

50.18

0

0.00

Redemption Price

50.18

0

0.00

Meezan Cap. Prot. Fund-II MCPF-II
Offer Price

53.28

0

0.00

Redemption Price

53.28

0

0.00

Meezan Sovereign Fund MSF
Offer Price

50.68

0

0.00

Redemption Price

50.58

0

0.00

NIT Income Fund NIT-IF
Offer Price

10.42

0

0.00

Redemption Price

10.31

0

0.00

NIT Government Bond Fund NIT-GBF
Offer Price

10.11

0

0.00

Redemption Price

10.01

0

0.00

Pakistan Cash Management Fund PCF
Offer Price

50.43

0

0.00

Redemption Price

50.43

0

0.00

Pakistan Capital Mkt. Fund PCMF
Offer Price

7.68

0

0.00

Redemption Price

7.53

0

0.00

Pak.Cap. Pro. Fund (Fixed In. Sec.) PCPF-FIS
Offer Price

10.54

0

0.00

Redemption Price

10.54

0

0.00

Pak. Int. Ele. Isl  Ass. Allo. F. PIIF
Offer Price

48.36

0

0.00

Redemption Price

48.31

0

0.00

Pakistan Income Enhancement  Fund PIEF
Offer Price

53.08

0

0.00

Redemption Price

52.36

0

0.00

PICIC Cash Fund PICIC-CF
Offer Price

101.75

0

0.00

Redemption Price

100.74

0

0.00

PICIC Income Fund PICIC-IF
Offer Price

102.14

0

0.00

Redemption Price

102.14

0

0.00

PICIC Stock Fund PICIC-SF
Offer Price

116.18

0

0.00

Redemption Price

112.79

0

0.00

UBL Capital Protected Fund -II UCPF-II
Offer Price

99.64

0

0.00

Redemption Price

99.64

0

0.00

UBL Principal Protected Fund UPPF-1
Offer Price

104.50

0

0.00

Redemption Price

104.50

0

0.00

UBL Gov. Securities Fund UGSF
Offer Price

101.50

0

0.00

Redemption Price

100.50

0

0.00

UBL Liquidity Plus Fund ULPF
Offer Price

100.55

0

0.00

Redemption Price

100.55

0

0.00

UBL Savings Income Fund USIF
Offer Price

101.64

0

0.00

Redemption Price

100.63

0

0.00

United Composit Islamic Fund UCIF
Offer Price

85.08

0

0.00

Redemption Price

83.00

0

0.00

UBL Islamic Saving Fund UISF
Offer Price

101.85

0

0.00

Redemption Price

101.85

0

0.00

United Islamic Income Fund UIIF
(Income Units)  Offer Price

88.98

0

0.00

(Income Units ) Redemption Price

88.10

0

0.00

(Growth Units)  Offer Price

88.10

0

0.00

(Growth Units ) Redemption Price

88.10

0

0.00

For more information, contact:
Islamabad Stock Exchange
ISE Towers
55-B, Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tel: +92(51)111-473-473
Fax: +92(51)111-473-329
Email: info@ise.com.pk

Islamabad Stock Exchange Closing Rate Summary dated 29-11-2012

Islamabad, November 29, 2012 (PPI-OT):

Previous Volume

159,000

Prv. ISE

10

Index =

3,205.79

Current Volume

247,000

Crr. ISE

10

Index =

3,203.50

Net Change

(2.29)

Total

142

Equal =

0

Plus

72

Minus =

-70

For more information, contact:
Islamabad Stock Exchange
ISE Towers
55-B, Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tel: +92(51)111-473-473
Fax: +92(51)111-473-329
Email: info@ise.com.pk

AKD Quotidian about — Fertilizer: Oct’12 sales disappoint, but there could be some respite in Dec’12

Karachi, November 28, 2012 (PPI-OT): Contrary to the historic trend, the month of October was very disappointing for fertilizer sales with urea and DAP both recording sequential decline in sales.

According to AKD Securities, uncertainty over urea price outlook, particularly given the looming threat of further imports was the main reason behind the sharp fall in urea demand. DAP sales were also down by 12%MoM to 184k tons. Urea demand sentiment in Nov’12 is likely to have been dented by news flow regarding possible PKR 150/bag reduction in prices; however demand is expected to rebound sharply in Dec’12 as price decline has yet to be notified, while wheat sowing season will be in full flow. Urea import threat could still persist in 2013 as the government is planning to import 1.2 million tons of urea in FY13 and in this regard is looking for a US$100 million credit facility from Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), white int’l urea price outlook is benign given the expectation of decline in China urea export tariffs. FATIMA remains AKD Securities’ top pick in the fertilizer sector given insulation from gas curtailment, diversified product base and encouraging trend in NP sales (+173% MoM in Oct’12 to 43k tons).

Urea sales disappoint in Oct’12: Contrary to the historic trend, the month of October was very disappointing for fertilizer sales with urea and DAP both recording sequential decline in sales. Urea sales were down by 11%MoM to 234k tons, while in comparison to last year; sales were down by 55%. Uncertainty over urea price outlook, particularly given the looming threat of further imports was the main reason behind the sharp fall in urea demand. DAP sales were also down by 12%MoM to 184k tons, however on a YoY basis decline was relatively less pronounced (-10%).

Fertilizer offtake 10MCY12
(000 tons) 10MCY12 10MCY11 Y/Y Oct-12 MoM
Urea

3,957

4,760

-17%

234

-11%

DAP

816

852

-4%

184

-12%

Company wise offtake

Urea

FFC

1,748

2,005

-13%

135

-7%

FFBL

215

363

-41%

18

4%

ENGRO

634

1,021

-38%

41

-18%

FATIMA

214

355

-40%

7

-32%

DAP

FFBL

422

523

-19%

58

-69%

ENGRO

181

223

-19%

84

963%

Other products

FATIMA (CAN)

259

272

-5%

12

-23%

FATIMA (NP)

206

66

214%

43

173%

Source: NFDC and AKD Research

Urea sales heading for a third consecutive year of demand decline: 10MCY12 urea sales stood at 3.96 million tons, down by 17%YoY. Urea offtake for CY12 is likely to stand at 5.3 million tons (-11%YoY), which will be 9% lower than last five year average of 5.8 million tons. Furthermore, CY12 will also mark a third consecutive year of urea sales decline. DAP has fared relatively better with 10MCY12 offtake down by just 4%YoY, as average price of DAP has actually declined by 1% CYTD compared with urea price hike of 23%. Furthermore, inventory buildup is also manageable when compared with urea.

Urea sales likely to rebound in Dec’12: Urea demand sentiment in Nov’12 is likely to have been dented by news Bow regarding possible FkR150/bag reduction in prices, due to a mix of reduction in GST as well as GIDC. However, price decline has yet to be notified and in turn the GoP has actually raised wheat support price by PKR 150/maund. With the wheat sowing season in full flow, AKD Securities expects Dec’12 urea sales to rebound sharply and partially make up for expected lower sales in Nov’12.

Urea imports could still boa threat in CY13: As per news reports today, the government is planning to import 1.2 million tons of urea in FY13 (1.4 million tons imported in 4MFY13) which is likely to cost US$588 million. In this regard, the government has approached Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) for financing of US$100 million for urea imports, where previously SFD provided US$200 million in CY09 and US$100 million in CY11 for urea imports. Urea prices in the international market have remained range bound, and could remain so in the near future given the possibility of Chinese authorities lowering the urea export price floor. Recall, China is the world’s largest urea exporter, where during 1HCY12, int’l urea prices spiked following sharp reduction in China exports.

Recommendation: FATIMA remains AKD Securities’ top pick in the fertilizer sector given insulation from gas curtailment, diversified product base and encouraging trend in NP sales (+173% MoM in Oct’12 to 43k tons). Besides urea sales risk, reduction in urea prices could result in NRV losses for AKD Securities’ fertilizer universe companies especially FFC and ENGRO, which could result in price underperformance in the near term.

Morning Call about Long Term Gas Plan approved by the Sub-Committee – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi, November 28, 2012 (PPI-OT): A much needed impetus for the ailing Fertilizers!

As per Arif Habib Limited’s channel checks, the subcommittee of the Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) has approved the long term plan regarding the gas availability to the ailing fertilizer sector.

According to Arif Habib Limited, approval from the committee makes the case of fertilizer sector very strong for the upcoming ECC meeting. In today’s ‘Morning Call’, Arif Habib Limited highlights the approved proposal and its possible impact on the fertilizer sector.

No requirement to lay down a 1,000km pipeline!
Under the approved proposal, fertilizer sector would not require to lay down a 1,000km pipeline to have a dedicated gas field. Fertilizer sector will use the existing Sui network and only 136 km line would be laid down by the SSGC. This is a positive development for the fertilizer sector in general, and Engro Fertilizer in particular, as they would not require investing in the pipeline anymore, thus phasing out the opposition to utilizing the funds from the Gas Development Infrastructure Cess (GDIC).

Gas to be purchased directly from the E and Ps
Fertilizer companies will be signing Gas Purchase Agreements (GPA) directly with the E and Ps. Under the new Petroleum Policy, E and P companies are now allowed to sell 10% of their gas directly to the consumer; bypassing the Sui companies. This will help fertilizer companies ensure uninterrupted gas supply.

Sui Network to supply gas on tolling basis to assure uninterrupted supplies
Under the new framework, both the Sui companies are expected to supply gas from the E and P fields on a tolling basis to fertilizer companies. Since the gas supplied to the fertilizer sector would be on a tolling basis, Sui companies would not be able to divert this gas to any other sector. Arif Habib Limited has seen in the past gas being diverted from fertilizer companies to other sectors despite gov’t guaranteed contracts with the fertilizer industry. However, with the implementation of this arrangement, certainty of gas supplies to the fertilizer sector could be assumed to a great extent.

Engro; The biggest beneficiary
Engro Fertilizer is expected to gain the most from the implementation of the long term plan as it would bring its Enven plant into full production. As per Arif Habib Limited’s discussion with the industry, fertilizer sector is making arrangements for Engro to receive gas in short term as well, which Arif Habib Limited believes would be a major trigger for the company’s earnings.

Gas availability to bring urea price down
Implementation of the long-term plan will improve the availability of gas, which in turn may result in urea price decline. FATIMA and ENGRO would be the least impacted fertilizer companies under a price cut scenario due to their long-term contract of low-feed gas prices. Faujis (FFC and FFBL), on the other hand, are expected to bear the brunt of declining urea prices due to their relatively less efficient plants and comparatively higher feed gas tariffs. In the mean time, Engro’s stock may gain traction that has lost its vigor by 5% since July-12; underperforming the benchmark KSE-100 index by a massive 24% so far!

Linde starts air separation plant – Alfalah Securities Limited

Karachi, November 28, 2012 (PPI-OT): Linde Pakistan has inaugurated its air separation plant installed at the Sunder Industrial Estate in Lahore.

According to Alfalah Securities Limited, it is Pakistan largest plant with the capacity to produce 150 tons per day of gaseous oxygen, nitrogen and argon for commercial sale. The total air separation project cost is higher than PKR 2.0 billion. The added capacity would improve the market share of Linde and would allow the company generates higher revenues leading to improved profitability.

ICIBL to add car financing and leasing – Alfalah Securities Limited

Karachi, November 28, 2012 (PPI-OT): The management of Invest Capital Investment Bank Ltd (ICIBL) intends to add new products from consumer banking and SME sector.

According to Alfalah Securities Limited, in this regard, it plans to initiate car financing and leasing services for the small and medium enterprises. ICIBL is majority owned (56.80% holding) by Zahidjee Group who had acquired the bank’s major shareholdings and management control in July 2011.