Maple Leaf Cement Forecasts Cement Demand Surge, Diversifies Into Healthcare

Islamabad: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) projects a significant rise in cement demand for fiscal year 2026, revising its initial 2% growth forecast to 6-9%, according to insights shared at the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 organized by Topline Securities. MLCF CFO Mohsin Naqvi and Sohail Sadiq attributed this upward revision to improving economic indicators, including easing inflation and monetary relaxation, leading to revived purchasing power. A backlog of construction and public infrastructure ventures further fuels this anticipated increase in cement offtake.

The company expects pricing to remain steady with potential upward adjustments, mirroring historical 5% annual increases. In FY25, MLCF achieved a record retention price of Rs15,600/ton. Beyond cement, MLCF is branching out into healthcare with NovaCare Hospitals, a network of three planned facilities. The inaugural Islamabad location is slated to open by the end of 2026, marking the first Pakistani hospital network affiliated with an international healthcare group.

The NovaCare project carries a US$100 million price tag, financed equally through debt and equity, with MLCF already contributing approximately US$25 million. Potential sites in Lahore are under evaluation for the second facility, and the project is projected to yield an 18% internal rate of return (IRR). In addition to healthcare, MLCF has acquired a 34.4% stake in Agritech Limited (AGL), a publicly traded fertilizer producer. The restructured board now comprises three representatives each from MLCF, Fauji Fertilizer (FFC), and independent members.

MLCF’s current domestic capacity utilization stands at 48%, anticipated to reach 52-55% this year due to heightened cement demand. The company’s power mix comprises 26% waste heat recovery, 60% coal, 8% solar, and 6% grid, with an average power cost of Rs15.82/unit. Fuel costs are currently Rs31,000/ton, utilizing a blend of pet coke, biomass, local coal, Afghan coal, and imported coal. MLCF, the sole local cement manufacturer using pet coke for its higher BTU efficiency, plans to increase biomass usage to 40%, potentially reducing fuel expenses by 20-25%.

While MLCF has no immediate plans for cement capacity expansion or ventures in the South region, the group holds a 20% stake in Pioneer Cement (PIOC), the seventh-largest cement enterprise in Pakistan.