Market Volatility and Economic Developments Shape the Week

Karachi: The stock market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by corporate results and geopolitical developments. The benchmark index closed at 154,440 points on Friday, marking a modest increase of 162 points or 0.11% compared to the previous week. Trading volumes saw a slight rise, with an average increase of 2.2% from the prior week.

The market opened strongly, buoyed by positive corporate earnings and the Chinese President’s promise to expedite CPEC 2.0. However, investor caution ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 15, 2025, coupled with ongoing floods, tempered the initial enthusiasm.

In the latest PIB auction, yields on 10 and 15-year tenors fell by 11 basis points and 7 basis points, respectively, while the 2-year tenor yield increased by 11 basis points. Workers’ remittances in August 2025 reached $3.1 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase.

Sectoral performance varied, with the auto sector experiencing a notable surge in volumes, attributed mainly to a 62% year-on-year increase in lower segment passenger car sales. Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan rose by $34 million, ending the week at $14.3 billion.

On the currency front, the Pakistani Rupee showed a slight appreciation, closing at PkR281.55 against the US dollar. Noteworthy developments included agreements by ADB and AIIB to support Pakistan’s issuance of $250 million in Panda bonds, and a new plan by FBR to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 18%.

Sector-wise, Leasing Companies, Tobacco, and Engineering emerged as top performers, while Jute, Property, and Vanaspati and Allied industries faced declines. Companies recorded significant net buying, while foreign investors and other organizations were net sellers.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, driven by the upcoming IMF review and focus on circular debt developments. The KSE100 index is projected to reach 165,215 points by December 2025, supported by robust earnings in fertilizers and improved economic stability. Top stock picks include OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, and others.

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