PABC’s Earnings Rise Yet Outlook Remains Cautious

Karachi: PABC is poised to report a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter of the calendar year 2025, with a projected 13% year-on-year rise to Rs5.33. This brings the EPS for the first nine months of 2025 to an estimated Rs16.10, marking a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is largely attributed to a recovery in both domestic and export sales, particularly with upcoming regional expansions.

Despite this positive earnings report, JS Global has reiterated its “Sell” rating for PABC. The recommendation is based on the recent surge in the company’s stock price and anticipated declines in earnings starting in the calendar year 2027. These declines are expected as a result of normalized taxes and a weaker export outlook due to forthcoming expansions into Central Asia. JS Global’s revised target price for PABC is Rs130, indicating a potential 14% decrease from current stock levels.

Approximately half of PABC’s revenue is generated from exports to Afghanistan, placing the company’s sales and earnings at risk from potential cross-border tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

JS Global suggests that the resumption of dividend payouts and any announcements regarding capital expenditures or investment plans to utilize net liquid assets, accumulated during a tax-holiday period, could serve as key catalysts for PABC’s stock in the future.

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