Pakistan’s Inflation Forecast to Rise in November 2025 Amid Higher Food Costs

Karachi: Pakistan’s inflation rate is expected to rise in November 2025, reaching between 6.5% and 7.0% year-on-year, according to a report by JS Global. This marks an increase from 6.25% in October 2025 and 4.86% in November 2024. The monthly increase is projected at 0.8%, influenced primarily by elevated food prices.

The rise in food prices is attributed to the aftereffects of recent floods and the closure of the Afghan border, which have disrupted food supplies. Significant contributors to the surge in food inflation include onions, which rose by 59%, chicken by 16%, meat by 15%, and fresh vegetables by 12%. In contrast, tomato prices fell by 56%, offsetting some of the pressures from other food categories.

The housing, water, electricity, and gas sector saw a 0.79% increase, driven by a 2.83% rise in electricity charges. The absence of a Quarterly Tariff Adjustment for the new quarter, following the end of the August-October adjustment, contributed to this increase. Additionally, the Fuel Charges Adjustment in November 2025 was reported at -Rs.0.4812/kWh, down from Rs0.0796/kWh in October 2025.

The transport segment is expected to experience a marginal decline of 0.05% month-on-month. This is largely due to a 0.1% decrease in motor fuels, with petrol prices falling by 1% and high-speed diesel increasing by 0.8%.

With inflation projected between 6.5% and 7.0% for November 2025, real rates are anticipated to reach 400-450 basis points, surpassing Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300 basis points.

A significant shift in global commodity prices remains a potential risk factor that could influence future inflation trends, according to the report.