Stock Market Rebounds Despite Weekly Losses Amid Mixed Economic Signals

Karachi: The stock market experienced a volatile week, with a final surge on Friday that helped mitigate earlier losses. The market closed at 159,592.9 points after a 496-point recovery in the last session, yet overall it shed 2,038 points or 1.3% over the week. Average daily traded volumes saw a significant decline, dropping by 30% to 1,093 million shares.

Amid these fluctuations, the economic landscape presented mixed signals. The trade deficit expanded by 56% year-on-year to $3.2 billion, although it showed a 4% month-on-month improvement. Inflationary pressures persisted as the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) rose by 6.2% year-on-year in October 2025, affecting market sentiment mid-week.

Conversely, positive economic indicators emerged towards the end of the week. Remittances increased to $3.4 billion, marking a 12% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month rise. Additionally, the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026 recorded a significant surplus of PKR 2.1 trillion, representing 1.6% of GDP. The Pakistan Investment Bond auction saw the State Bank of Pakistan raising PKR 489 billion, surpassing its target, with stable yields reported.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves saw a modest increase of $31 million, reaching $14.5 billion by the end of October 2025. The Pakistani rupee also appreciated slightly by 0.03%, closing at 280.82 against the US dollar.

Looking ahead, analysts predict continued momentum in the KSE-100 index, bolstered by the successful conclusion of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood damage, and improved credit ratings. Investor confidence may be further enhanced by potential foreign investment inflows, driven by improved diplomatic ties with the United States and Saudi Arabia. With limited alternative investment options and attractive local equity valuations, the KSE-100, trading at a multiple of 7.4x and offering a 6.6% dividend yield, remains appealing to investors.

Top stock picks recommended by market analysts include MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, SYS, and INDU, reflecting optimism in these sectors.

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