Automobile Sales Expected to Grow 21% Year-on-Year Amidst Challenges

Karachi: Automobile sales are projected to experience a significant 21% year-on-year growth in July 2025, despite reaching the lowest monthly volumes since August 2024. This increase is anticipated for the three major players in the market: Indus Motors Company Ltd, Honda Atlas Cars Ltd, and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd, collectively expected to sell 8,500 units.

However, a substantial month-on-month decline of 54% in sales volumes is expected. This drop is attributed to pre-budget purchases in June 2025, driven by the anticipation of tax hikes in the FY26 Budget. The increase in sales tax on vehicles of up to 850cc, which constitute 40% of the market, from 12.5% to 18%, is also expected to have negatively impacted demand in July 2025.

In contrast to the growth in automobile sales, tractor sales are forecasted to decline by 20% year-on-year and 58% month-on-month, reaching 1,175 units. This decrease is primarily driven by a sharp reduction in Al-Ghazi Tractors Ltd volumes, which are down by 46% year-on-year and 86% month-on-month.

Despite the challenges posed by the FY26 budget for the auto sector, a favorable macroeconomic environment, supported by easing monetary policy and currency stability, is expected to drive volume growth in the fiscal year 2026. Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd is highlighted as a top pick in the sector, with a target price of Rs 710, offering a potential upside of 35%.

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